Daddio Full Trailer / Looks at Cannes/TFF Possibilities / Participant and Netflix Choices Could Impact TFF

First, my apologies for not having a post up last Monday.  I was finishing up a very, very busy weekend and just ran out of time.

DADDIO FULL TRAILER

Sony Pictures Classics has delivered a full trailer for Christy Hall's Daddio starring Dakota Johnson and Sean Penn. This follows a teaser that was released a few weeks ago. The TFF #50 selection  is set for a limited open on June 28th.

Here's the IMDb description for those who didn't see the film at the fest:

"A woman taking a cab ride from JFK engages in a conversation with the taxi driver about the important relationships in their lives."

LOOKS AT CANNES/TFF POSSIBLES

With the announcement of films for the Cannes Film Fest have come some promotional materials allowing us to begin to see images for those films and perhaps some for films that will then play TFF #51,  Here's a couple:

Barry Keoghan in Andrea Arnold's Bird:

And a photo of Jeremy Strong and Sebastian Stan from Ali Abbasi's The Apprentice:

From Guy Maddin, Evan and  Galen Johnson's Rumours:

PARTICIPANT AND NETFLIX CHOICES COULD IMPACT TFF

Word this week that Participant, the production company behind such TFF fare as Roma, Spotlight, Flee, The Look of Silence and numerous others will be closing up shop.  Meanwhile, it was reported that Netflix is shifting focus in terms of the films it produces and will be less auteur focused.  Netflix has been among the most represented film producer/distributors at Telluride for the past decade.

Both circumstances could have a real effect on TFF programming.

Both stories were reported at World of Reel.  Here's the Participant story and here's the Netflix story.

       

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Cannes Lineup Revealed

CANNES LINEUP REVEALED

Early this morning the Cannes Film Festival officially revealed most of its lineup.  This is of particular interest to Telluride Film Fest followers because most years there is a substantial cross over from Cannes to T-ride.  The average is somewhere around 7-8 films per year.  So let's see what Cannes 2024 will be screening.  Per Variety:

OPENER

“Second Act,” Quentin Dupieux

COMPETITION

“All We Imagine as Light,” Payal Kapadia

“Anora,” Sean Baker

“Bird,” Andrea Arnold

“Caught by the Tides” (“Feng Liu Yi Dai”), Jia Zhang-Ke

“Emilia Perez,” Jacques Audiard

“Grand Tour,” Miguel Gomes

“Kinds of Kindness,” Yorgos Lanthimos

“L’Amour Ouf,” Gilles Lellouche

“Limonov: The Ballad,” Kirill Serebrennikov

“Marcello Mio,” Christophe Honore

“Megalopolis,” Francis Ford Coppola

“Motel Destino,” Karim Ainouz

“Oh Canada,” Paul Schrader

“Parthenope,” Paolo Sorrentino

“The Apprentice,” Ali Abbasi

“The Girl With the Needle,” Magnus von Horn

“The Shrouds,” David Cronenberg

“The Substance,” Coralie Fargeat

“Wild Diamond” (“Diamant Brut”), Agathe Riedinger

UN CERTAIN REGARD

“Armand,” Halfdan Ullman Tondel

“Black Dog” (“Gou Zhen”), Guan Hu

“The Damned” (Les Damnes”), Roberto Minervini

“L’Histoire de Souleymane,” Boris Lojkine

“Le Royaume,” Julien Colonna

“My Sunshine” (“Boku No Ohisama”), Hiroshi Okuyama

“Norah,” Tawfik Alzaidi

“On Becoming a Guinea Fowl,” Rungano Nyoni

“Santosh,” Sandhya Suri

“September Says,” Ariane Labed

“The Shameless,” Konstantin Bojanov

“Viet and Nam,” Truong Minh Quy

“The Village Next to Paradise,” Mo Harawe

“Vingt Dieux!,” Louise Courvoisier

“Who Let the Dog Bite?” (“Le Proces du Chien”), Laetitia Dosch

OUT OF COMPETITION

“Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga,” George Miller

“Horizon, an American Saga,” Kevin Costner

“Rumours,” Evan Johnson, Galen Johnson, Guy Maddin

“She’s Got No Name,” Chan Peter Ho-Sun

CANNES PREMIERE

“C’est Pas Moi,” Leos Carax

“En Fanfare” (“The Matching Bang”), Emmanuel Courcol

“Everybody Loves Touda,” Nabil Ayouch

From these lists it seems like the most probable TFF choices might include:

Andrea Arnold's Bird

Jacques Audiard's Emilia Perez

Francia Ford Coppola's Megalopolis

Paul Shrader's Oh, Canada

Paolo Sorrention's Parthenope

Ali Abbasi's The Apprentice

Guy Maddin, Evan Johnson and Galen Johnson's Rumours

Rithy Pahn's Rendezous with Pol Pot

I had been including Sean Baker's Anora but this past week World of Reel suggested that the film would be released this summer.

Here's the entire Variety story.

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Final Cannes Speculation / Amy Adams Film Back in the Game? / Janet Planet Trailer, Poster and Release Date

FINAL CANNES SPECULATION

All of the anticipation about what films will be selected for the 77th Cannes film Festival comes to a conclusion on Thursday when the bulk of the films that have been invited will be revealed.  The unveiling is set for 11:00 AM Paris time.  That should mean I'll have the skinny in Thursday morning's regularly scheduled post.  A quick note here, however, is that may mean that Thursday's post doesn't go up as early in the morning as it usually does.  

With that, here are the final two Cannes spec pieces that I'll pass along with my guesses from those lists which films seem most Telluride-ish.  From Indiewire and Ioncinema.

From Indiewire:

Bird- Dir: Andrea Arnold

The End- Dir: Joshua Oppenheimer

Juror #2- Dir: Clint Eastwood

Marcel and Mister Pagnol- Dir: Sylvain Chomet

Megalopolis- Dir: Francis Ford Coppola

Oh, Canada- Dir: Paul Schrader

Queer- Dir: Luca Guadagnino

Rumours- Dir: Guy Maddin

Parthenope- Dir: Paolo Sorrentino

The complete list from Indiewire is here.

And from Ioncinema:

Anora- Dir: Sean Baker

Bird- Dir: Andrea Arnold

Emilia Perez- Dir: Jacques Audiard

Hard Truths- Dir: Mike Leigh

Parthenope- Dir: Paolo Sorrentino

The End-  Dir: Joshua Oppenheimer

 

And here are three films that are included on Ioncinema's list and have been on others that I've not included previously on my guess list but...do have a slim possibility of a T-ride play"

The Shrouds- Dir: David Cronenberg

The Most Valuable Commodity- Dir: Francois Ozon

When Autumn Comes- Dir: Michel Hazanavicius

The Ioncinema list is here.

 Let's see what happens on Thursday!

AMY ADAMS FILM BACK IN THE GAME?

I had written off Marielle Heller's Nightbitch starring TFF tribute recipient Amy Adams (2016) last year amid reports that Searchlight was unsure what to do with the film.  I had included it in early TFF #50 speculation owing to Adams past tribute and that Heller had Can You Ever Forgive Me? at TFF 2018 and that film earned three Oscar nominations (Best Actress for Melissa McCarthy, Best Supporting Actor for Richard E. Grant and Best Adapted Screenplay for Jeff Whitty and Nicole Holofcener)  All that seemed like a confluence of factors that made for a solid case that we'd see it announced for the TFF #50 lineup.  But noop.

Now comes news that Searchlight has announced an awards friendly release date of  Dec.6th.  That makes me think that a TFF #51 play could be in the cards.

The hubbub last year was that the film sounds, well...weird.  The IMDb description is fairly innocuous:

"A woman pauses her career to be a stay-at-home mom, but soon her domesticity takes a surreal turn."

Left unsaid in that description is that the "surreal turn" is that the woman believes that she's turning into a dog.

What motivated Searchlight to finally decide to release the film in the awards window?  I have no real proof but I wonder if the response to Yorgos Lanthimos' Poor Things (also from Searchlight) convinced them that "weird" was okay?

Here's more of the lowdown from The Hollywood Reporter.

JANET PLANET TRAILER, POSTER AND RELEASE DATE

A24 has just released a trailer and poster for Annie Baker's Janet Planet which screened at TFF #50.  The film will be released on June 21st.  Here's the trailer from YouTube:

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More Cannes Thoughts / The Cannes-Oscar Scoreboard

MORE CANNES THOUGHTS 

With a week left until the announcement of the lineup for the 77th edition of the Cannes Film Festival, I've added a look at analysis from Deadline as to what may be in and out.

Those films that Deadline mentions that feel like a Telluride possibility include:

Parthenope- Dir: Paolo Sorrentino

Bird- Dir: Andrea Arnold

Conclave- Dir: Edward Berger

Touch- Dir: Baltasar Kormakur

Deadline also mentions Frances ford Coppola's Megalopolis is still possible but uncertain due to Coppola's aiming for an IMAX release.

The piece also includes a listing of a number of films that have had Cannes speculation that likely will not be in France in May including:

Pablo Larrain's Maria

Sean Baker's Anora

Paul Schrader's Oh, Canada

Mike Leigh's Hard Truths

Luca Guadagnino's Queer

Joshua Oppenheimer's The End

Ali Abbasi' The Apprentice

Jacques Audiard's Emilia Perez

And one other surprising Telluride related nugget:  Deadline suggests that Jeff Nichol's The Bikeriders which played at TFF #50 might actually get a slot at Cannes.  Author Andreas Wiseman writes:

"Another movie in the wildcard section of this discussion is Jeff Nichols’ The Bikeriders, which is being discussed by insiders for a potential slot somewhere in the lineup. On paper, this seems an unlikely choice given that it launched at North American festivals and at London last year but Nichols has history with Cannes and the starry movie isn’t released until June. The door isn’t shut on this one."

That would be a wild reversal of the often occurring Cannes to Telluride pipeline.

The complete Deadline post is here.

THE CANNES-OSCAR SCOREBOARD

Beginning with my March 14th post I have been scouring early Oscar predictions and Cannes spec pieces for clues about films which could be potential selections for TFF #51.  I'll have a couple of more Cannes looks on Monday next week prior to the actual announcement from France.  right now, though, these are the films that have shown up on the lists most frequently and how many times they've been mentioned:

Magalopolis (7)

Bird (6)

Conclave (6)

Maria (6)

Parthenope (5)

The End (5)

The Apprentice (5)

Blitz (5)

The Piano Lesson (5)

Queer (5)

Emilia Perez (4)

The Actor (4)

The Nickel Boys (4)

Long Day's Journey Into Night (4)

Anora (3)

Hard Truths (3)

SNL 1975 (2)

Oh, Canada (2)

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More Cannes Speculation / Orlando Has a Date

 MORE CANNES SPECULATION

Over the weekend I checked in on Jordan Ruimy /World of Reel's evolving list of possible films that will be invited to the Cannes Film Festival in less than two weeks (April 11th).  As always, I look to Cannes for the emergence of films that could World Premiere there in May and then emerge at Telluride as North American premieres.

Looking at Ruimy's list, it seems like there is a lot of agreement with films that I included from Screen Daily's Cannes list last week.  Here are the films from Ruimy's post that I feel like have the most likely chance of playing TFF:

Megalopolis-Dir: Frances Ford Coppola (although there's a good deal of buzz that it may NOT appear at Cannes after all.  It seems that Coppola wants a distribution deal in place before the film screens anywhere and if that doesn't happen, the focus for its first public screening might switch to a fall festival scenario-stay tuned).

Anora- Dir: Sean Baker

Bird- Dir: Andrea Arnold

Emilia Perez- Dir: Jacques Audiard

Hard Truths- Dir: Mike Leigh

Parthenope- Dir: Paolo Sorrentino

The End- Dir: Joshua Oppenheimer

The Apprentice- Dir: Ali Abbasi

In the Hands of Dante- Dir: Julian Schnabel

Rumors- Dir: Guy Maddin

WOR's complete list is linked here.

ORLANDO HAS A DATE

Janus Films has announced a release date for physical media sales of Paul B. Preciado's Orlando: My Political Biography.  Blu-Ray and DVD sales of the documentary will begin on June 25th.

Here's the IMDb description of the film:

"Academic virtuoso turned filmmaker Paul B. Preciado's Berlin Film Festival award-winning doc tells his and others' stories of transition through unique reenactments and visual interpretations of Virginia Woolf's Orlando: A Biography."

And here is the announcement from Janus Films.

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Vanity Fair's Too Early Oscar Picks and TFF / Cannes Speculation and TFF / The Best Docs of the 21st Century and TFF

VANITY FAIR'S TOO EARLY OSCAR PICKS AND TFF

I'm continuing my current project of scouring early Oscar prognostications for possible titles that might pop up at the 51st Telluride Film Festival.  Today's source is Joe Reid of Vanity Fair. These predicted films seem to me to have the best chance at TFF (listed in the order they are presented in the article):

Megalopolis- Dir: Frances Ford Coppola

Hard Truths- Dir: Mike Leigh

Blitz- Dir: Steve McQueen

Bird- Dir: Andrea Arnold

The End- Dir: Joshua Oppenheimer

Conclave- Dir: Edward Berger

The Actor- Dir: Duke Johnson

The Piano Lesson- Dir: Malcolm Washington

Maria- Dir: Pablo Larrain

The Nickel Boys- Dir: RaMell Ross

Queer; Dir: Luca Guadagnino

Long Day's Journey Into Night- Dir: Jonathan Kent

The Apprentice- Dir: Ali Abbasi

SNL 1975- Dir: Jason Reitman

The complete list of Vanity Fair predictions is linked here.

CANNES SPECULATION AND TFF

In addition to Oscar speculation as a way to sense some of the films that could be on their way to Telluride, the films that are selected for inclusion at the Cannes Film Festival merit investigation.

Each year there are a number of films that end up playing at Cannes in May and again as a North American premiere at TFF.  Last year I logged 10 films that played both fests including Anatomy of a Fall, The Zone of Interest and The Teachers' Lounge.  The average is around eight per year.

So, to begin that part of the process, I took a look at Screen Daily's annual Cannes speculation  article that was posted a week ago.  Screen Daily divides its list geographically.  That said, here are what feel like films that could possibly make the Cannes/Telluride connection:

Anora- Dir: Sean Baker

Maria- Dir: Pablo Larrain

Megalopolis- Dir: Frances Ford Coppola

Bird- Dir: Andrea Arnold

The End- Dir: Joshua Oppenheimer

Emilia Perez-Jacques Audiard

Dear Paris- Dir: Marjane Satrapi

The complete Screen Daily article is linked here.

THE BEST DOCS OF THE 21ST CENTURY AND TFF

Indiewire posted a list of what they have determined to be the 52 best documentaries of the 21st century.  Not surprisingly a good number of the films that made the list also made an appearance at the Telluride Film Festival.

Here's the list of docs from the top 52 that screened at TFF.  These are listed in reverse order by where Indiewire ranked them.  The year the doc appeared at Telluride is indicated to the title's right in parentheses:

43) The Central Park Five (2012)\

31) Procession (2021)

29) Fire at Sea (2016)

17) Waltz with Bashir (2008)

13) Bowling for Columbine (2002)

10) The Look of Silence (2015)

9) Stories We Tell (2013)

6) Faces Places (2017)

5) All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (2022)

4) Flee (2021)

1) The Act of Killing (2013)

The complete list of 52 including description and analysis is linked here.

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Offscreen Central's Early Oscar Line and TFF / Carol Doda Opens and Has a Trailer

OFFSCREEN CENTRAL'S EARLY OSCAR LINE AND TFF 

I'm continuing my current project of scouring early Oscar prognostications for possible titles that might pop up at the 51st Telluride Film Festival.  Today's source is Offscreen Central.  For this source I looked at Best Picture Predictions first and then for other possibilities from the acting, directing and screenplay categories.

From their Best Picture predictions:

Blitz

Conclave

Long Day's Journey Into Night

Maria

Megalopolis

The Piano Lesson

And from other category predictions:

The End

The Actor

Queer

Parenthope

Oh, Canada

The Nickel Boys

The complete set of early predictions and analysis from Offscreen Central can be found here.

CAROL DODA HAS LIMITED OPENING AND HAS A TRAILER

One of the documentaries that played The backlot at Telluride last Labor Day was Marlo McKenzie and Jonathan Parker's Carol Doda Topless at The Condor.  The film tells the story of America's first topless nightclub performer.

The film opened in a limited fashion this past weekend and will expand in the comin weeks.

Here's the story from Indiewire.

And the Red band trailer from YouTube:

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Next Best Picture's Early Oscar Line and TFF / Daddio Has a Date / Interviews and Profiles

 NEXT BEST PICTURE'S EARLY OSCAR LINE AND TFF

I'm continuing my current project of scouring early Oscar prognostications for possible titles that might pop up at the 51st Telluride Film Festival.  Today's source is Daniel Howat from Next Best Picture.  For this source I looked at Best Picture Predictions first and then for other possibilities from the acting, directing and screenplay categories.

So here are the films from those predictions that seem to me to be the most Telluride-ific.

The Actor-Dir: Duke Johnson

Blitz-Dir: Steve McQueen

Conclave-Dir: Edward Berger

Long Day's Journey Into Night"- Dir: Jonathan Kent

Maria- Dir: Pablo Larrain

The Piano Lesson- Dir: Malcolm Washington

Queer- Dir: Luca Guadagnino

Juror #2- Dir: Clint Eastwood

Mother Mary- Dir: David Lowery

Anora- Dir: Sean Baker

The Apprentice- Dir: Ali Abbasi

Bird- Dir: Andrea Arnold

The Collaboration- Dir: Kwame Kwei-Armah

Emilia Perez- Dir: Jacques Audiard

Megalopolis- Dir: Francis Ford Coppola

The Nickel Boys- Dir: RaMell Ross

Polaris- Dir: Lynne Ramsay

The complete early predictions from NBP are linked here.

DADDIO HAS A DATE

Dakota Johnson at the post-screening Q+A for Daddio at Telluride

Indiewire reports that Sony Pictures Classics has dated the release for Christ Hall's Daddio. The film will hit theaters on June 28th.  Dakota Johnson and Sean Penn star.

The IMDb description:

"A woman taking a cab ride from JFK engages in a conversation with the taxi driver about the important relationships in their lives."

I caught Daddio at telluride and was quite taken with it.

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Director and writer Christy hall and Produce Ro Donnelly for Daddio from Indieiwire.

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Variety's Early Oscar Predictions and TFF / MTFB's Unofficial TFF Oscar History Updated / Trailers: Wildcat and Food Inc. 2 / Interviews and Profiles

VARIETY'S EARLY OSCAR PREDICITONS AND TFF

I'm continuing my current project of scouring early Oscar prognostications for possible titles that might pop up at the 51st Telluride Film Festival.  Today's source is Clayton Davis from Variety.  For this source I looked at Best Picture Predictions first and then for other possibilities from the acting, directing and screenplay categories.

So here are the films from those predictions that seem to me to be the most Telluride-ific.

From Clayton's 10 Best Picture predictions:

Andrea Arnold's Bird

Steve McQueen's Blitz

Edward Berger's Conclave

Joshua Oppenheimer's The End

Francis Ford Coppola's Megalopolis

RaMell Ross' The Nickel Boys

Malcolm Washington's The Piano Lesson

From Clayton's alternates for Best Picture:

Ali Abbasi's The Apprentice

Mike Leigh's Hard Truths

Pablo Larrain's Maria

Paolo Sorrentino's Parenthope

Luca Gaudagnino's Queer

Jason Reitman's SNL 1975

And from the other categories:

Paul Schrader's Oh Canada

Duke Johnson's The Actor

Jonathan Kent's Long Day's Journey Into Night

Linked here are Clayton's complete set of early Oscar predictions for Variety.

MTFB'S UNOFFICIAL TFF OSCAR HISTORY UPDATED

As promised, the Unofficial TFF Oscar History Page has been updated to reflect the results of the recently concluded Oscar season.  Highlighted updates are that TFF films collectively went over 600 total nominations (607 to be exact).  TFF films have won 127 Oscars.  

I have included a new nugget with this update and that is a list of TFF films that earned four or more Oscar wins.

See all the newly included info from this year's Oscars plus the new section by using the link above on the masthead.

TRAILERS

FOR ETHAN HAWKE'S WILDCAT

AND FOR ROBERT KENNER AND MELISSA ROBLEDO'S FOOD INC. 2

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Costume Designer Holly Waddington for Poor Things from A.Frame.

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Some Other Post Oscar Notes / So Early, But... / Interviews and Profiles

SOME OTHER POST OSCAR NOTES

2023's edition of the Telluride Film Festival was much more Oscar connected than the 2022 SHOW.  The 49th TFF had films that earned 17 total nominations and a single win for Best Adapted Screenplay for Sarah Polley's Women Talking.

The 50th version saw a dramatic jump in both nominations and wins.  35 total nominations and an a solid nine wins.  For context the 35 nominations tied 2016 and 2021 TFFs for the years with the most nominations.  The nine Oscar wins is the third largest number of Oscar wins for TFFs. 2016 saw TFF films win 12 Oscars and in 2013 TFF films won 10.

For other trivia about the TFF/Oscar connection take a look next week at my TFF Unofficial Oscar History page which has a link above.

SO EARLY, BUT...

Gold Derby is up with an incredibly early list of 20 films that they bill as "Early Contenders" for Oscar glory a year from now.  That gives me an opportunity to begin looking at those films and see which ones could be TFF #51 contenders as well.

What to kook for?  TFF history with a film's director, producer and/or distributor.  Or sometimes it's a gut feeling irrespective of any of those characteristics.

At any rate...here are films from the list of 20 that seem like TFF possibilities:

The Apprentice Dir: Ali Abbasi.

Bird Dir: Andrea Arnold.

Blitz Dir: Steve McQueen.  Distrib: Apple TV+

Conclave Dir: Edward Berger.  Distrib: Focus Features

Maria Dir: Pablo Larrain (it probably also doesn't hurt for TFF chances that the cinematographer is Ed Lachman)

Megalopolis Dir: Frances Ford Coppola

Parthenope Dir: Paolo Sorrentino

The Piano Lesson Dir: Malcolm Washington. Distrib: Netflix

Queer Dir: Luca Guadagnino

Here's the link to the entire piece from Gold Derby.

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Actor Christian Friedel for the two time Oscar winning The Zone of Interest from The Hollywood Reporter.

OSCAR 2024 / Turn the Page

OSCAR 2024

A memorable Oscar night last night.

Telluride 2023 films pick up an astonishing nine Oscar wins.  That was above what I was predicting.  The Oscars went to:

Poor Things (4): Best Actress (Emma Stone), Production Design, Costumes and Makeup/Hair.

The Zone of Interest (2): Best International Film and Sound.

The Holdovers (1): Best Supporting Actress (Da'Vine Joy Randolph).

Anatomy of a Fall (1): Best Original Screenplay.

The Last Repair Shop (1): Best Documentary Short.

My prediction success: 19 of 23 for a rate of 82.6 %.  That's a bit higher than my 78.5% rate since 2014. I missed Best Actress, Best Sound, Best Animated Feature and Best Visual Effects.  

I was pleasantly surprised to get all of the Short subject winners right.  For the first time ever, I believe, in each of the four categories that I picked incorrectly, the film/performer I had as the potential upset was, in fact, the winner.

Over at Gold Derby, though, 19/23 is nothing to get snooty about.  I finished 891st out of  11,034 participants.

19/23, though, was better all but one Gold Derby expert (Nikki Novak from Fandango).  I was tied with Shawn Edwards, Susan King and Pete Hammond.  I was ahead of experts from Variety, Indiewire, Next Best Picture, ABC, USA Today, People and Awards Daily.  I'm thinking of petitioning Gold Derby to become one of their expert contributors.

TURN THE PAGE

And now, as we do every year at this time, we turn our attention in a more concentrated fashion to speculation and prediction about the lineup possibilities for the Telluride Film Festival.  Over the next few weeks, I'll be scouring media for early Oscar 2025 predictions for clues as well as the Cannes lineup, set to be revealed, we believe, on April 11th.  That should give us some notions about what to expect over Labor Day weekend.

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MTFB SPECIAL: FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR TONIGHT

 FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS (TFF films in Bold).

Best Picture:  Winner: Oppenheimer. Upset: The Holdovers.

Best Direction: Winner: Christopher Nolan/Oppenheimer. Upset: Jonathan Glazer/The Zone of Interest

Best Actress: Winner: Lily Gladstone/Killers of the Flower Moon. Upset: Emma Stone/Poor Things

Best Actor: Winner: Cillian Murphy/Oppenheimer.  Upset: Paul Giamatti/The Holdovers.

Best Supporting Actress: Winner: Da'Vine Joy Randolph/The Holdovers.  Upset: Emily Blunt/Oppenheimer.

Best Supporting Actor: Winner: Robert Downey, Jr./Oppenheimer.  Upset: Ryan Gosling/Barbie.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Winner: American Fiction.  Upset: Barbie.

Best Original Screenplay: Winner: Anatomy of a Fall.  Upset: The Holdovers.

Best International Film: Winner: The Zone of Interest.  Upset: Society of the Snow.

Best Animated Film: Winner: Spiderman: Across the Spider-Verse.  Upset: The Boy and the Heron.

Best Documentary: Winner: 20 Days in Mariupol.  Upset: Bobi Wine: The People's President.

Best Cinematography: Winner: Oppenheimer.  Upset: Poor Things.

Best Editing: Winner: Oppenheimer.  Upset: The Holdovers.

Best Original Score: Winner: Oppenheimer.  Upset: Killers of the Flower Moon.

Best Original Song: Winner: What Was I Made For?/Barbie.  Upset: I'm Just Ken/Barbie.

Best Production Design: Winner: Poor Things.  Upset: Barbie.

Best Costume Design: Winner: Poor Things.  Upset: Barbie.

Best Makeup/Hair: Winner: Maestro.  Upset: Poor Things.

Best Visual Effects: Winner: The Creator.  Upset: Godzilla Minus One.

Best Sound: Winner: Oppenheimer. Upset: The Zone of Interest.

Best Live Action Short: Winner: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar.  Upset: The After.

Best Documentary Short: Winner: The Last Repair Shop.  Upset: The ABCs of Book Burning.

Best Animated Short: Winner: War Is Over Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko.  Upset: Letter to a Pig.

MTFB is predicting that TFF films will win five Oscars.  

Poor Things (2): Cstumes and Production Design.

The Holdovers (1): Best Supporting Actress

The Zone of Interest (1) Best International Feature

The Last Repair Shop (1): Best Documentary Short

Here's my track record of predicting Oscar winners over the last several years:

2023: 18/23 78.3% 

2022: 21/23 91.3% 

2021: 16/23 69.6% 

2020: 19/24 79.2% 

2019: 19/24 79.2% 

2018: 21/24 87.5% 

2017: 15/24 62.5% 

2016: 15/24 62.5% 

2015: 20/24 83.3% 

2014: 22/24 91.7% 

That's 186/237 over the decade for a success rate at 78.5%.

FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS FROM THE EXPERTS

Clayton Davis/Variety

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Anne Thompson/Indiewire

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily Podcast

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch

Joey Magidson/Awards Radar

Mark Johnson/Good as Gold

Gregory Ellwood/The Playlist

Next Best Picture

Gold Derby

My TFF Saved / MTFB Oscar Update: The Penultimate Picks for the Final Seven Categories / Cannes Speculation Heating Up / Interviews and Profiles

MY TFF SAVED

For those who have been following the saga of "no passes for the Patterson's for TFF #51", I am pleased to report that disaster has been averted.  I can't get into what was involved but as of today's post it appears that MTFB will be physically at Telluride over Labor Day weekend complete with pass in hand.

My deepest appreciation for everyone who reached out with suggestions about how to resolve the issue.  Your advice and friendship mean the world to me.

See you in The Ride in late August/early September!

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: THE PENULTIMATE PICKS FOR THE FINAL SEVEN

Here's your MTFB Update for the remining seven Oscar categories that I have not updated in this latest round of predictions.  TFF films are in Bold.

COSTUMES

1) Poor Things (1)

2) Barbie (2)

3) Killers of the Flower Moon (3)

4) Oppenheimer (4)

5) Napoleon (5)

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Maestro (1)

2) Poor Things (2)

3) Oppenheimer (3)

4) Golda (4)

5) Society of the Snow (5)

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) The Creator (1)

2) Godzilla Minus One (2)

3) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (3)

4) Napoleon (4)

5) Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning (5)

SOUND

1) Oppenheimer (1)

2) The Zone of Interest (2)

3) Maestro (3)

4) The Creator (4)

5) Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning (5)

ANIMATED SHORT

1) War Is Over (1)

2) Letter to a Pig (2)

3) Ninety Five Senses (3)

4) Pachyderme (5)

5) Our Uniform (4)

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) The Last Repair Shop (1)

2) The ABCs of Book Burning (2)

3) Nai Nai and Wai Po (3)

4) The Barber of Little Rock (4)

5) Island in Between (5)

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar (1)

2) The After (2)

3) Red, White and Blue (3)

4) Knight of Fortune (5)

5) Invincible (4)

Comment: Very stable predictions over the past couple of weeks.  Only two of these categories seem all but locked: Makeup/Hair and Animated Short.  The rest are very, very competitive.

Final Oscar predictions for all 23 categories will up on Sunday hours before the ceremony.

CANNES SPECUALTION HEATING UP

Frequent readers of MTFB know that the Telluride Film Festival annually screens a substantial number of films that have screened at Cannes.  If you're serious about trying to determine some of the films that will possibly make the TFF lineup, you have to pay attention to films that stop in France first.

Last year, the films that screened both fests included: Anatomy of a Fall, Fallen Leaves, La Chimera, Occupied City, Perfect Days, The Taste of Things, and The Zone of Interest.

So, I have been sifting through some pieces that are spitballing what may and may not be at Cannes that also seem to have the kind of pedigree to make the Labor Day trip to Colorado.  Looking at posts from Variety,  Deadline.com and World of Reel.

Reportedly Cannes will announce the bulk of the 2024 lineup on April 11th.

Variety speculates that the following films could be Cannes bound (and these are the ones that seem to have early TFF potential):

Jacques Audiard's Emilia Perez 

Ali Abassi's The Apprentice

Paolo Sorrentino's Parenthope

Yorgos Lanthimos' Kinds of Kindness

Andrea Arnold's Bird

Francis Ford Coppola's Megalopolis

Variety says that Steve McQueen's Blitz is off the table for Cannes.

Deadline is in agreement with Variety in terms of Emilia Perez, Parenthope, Kinds of Kindness, Bird and Megalopolis.  In addition to those they include a couple of other films that "feel" possible for Telluride:  Balthazar Kormakur's Touch and Edward Berger's The Conclave.

Deadline also concurs with Variety reporting the unlikelihood of Blitz playing Cannes and adds other doubtfuls (that could be TFF possibles): 

Clint Eastwood's Juror #2

Pablo Larrain's Maria

Paul Schrader's Oh Canada

Joshua Oppenheimer's The End

Mike Leigh's Hard Truths.

And from World of Reel's constantly evolving list of Cannes possibilities that might also be TFF contenders...agreement on:

Kinds of Kindness

Megalopolis

Bird

Emilia Perez

Parenthope

The Apprentice

Touch

The Conclave

Three additional titles from WOR's list that I would include as TFF possibilties:

Sean Baker's Anora

Julian Schnabel's In the Hands of Dante

Guy Maddin's Rumors

So there's some titles to chew on.

Links to each of the posts:

Variety

Deadline

World of Reel

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Director Alexander Payne and Screenwriter David Hemingson for The Holdovers from The National Board of Review.

Sound Designer Johnnie Burn for The Zone of Interest from The Desert Sun.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

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MTFB Oscar Update: The Penultimate Middle Eight Predictions / The Satellite Awards and TFF / The Bikeriders Has a New Trailer / Pass Saga / Interviews and Profiles

 MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: PENULTIMATE THE MIDDLE EIGHT PREDICTIONS

 BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) The Zone of Interest/United Kingdom (1)

2) Society of the Snow/Spain (2)

3) The Teachers' Lounge/Germany (3)

4) Perfect Days/Japan (4)

5) Io Capitano/Italy (5)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) 20 Days in Mariupol (1)

2) Bobi Wine: The People's President (2)

3) Four Daughters (3)

4) The Eternal Memory (4)

5) To Kill a Tiger (5)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Spiderman: Across the Spider-Verse (1)

2) The Boy and the Heron (2)

3) Elemental (3)

4) Nimona (4)

5) Robot Dreams (5)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) What Was I Made For?/Barbie (1)

2) I'm Just Ken/Barbie (2)

3) Whazhazhe/Killers of the Flower Moon (4)

4) It Never Went Away/American Symphony (3)

5) The Fire Inside/Flamin' Hot (5)

ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Oppenheimer (1)

2) Killers of the Flower Moon (2)

3) Poor Things (3)

4) American Fiction (4)

5) Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (5)

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Oppenheimer (1)

2) Poor Things (3)

3) Killers of the Flower Moon (2)

4) Maestro (4)

5) El Conde (5)

EDITING

1) Oppenheimer (1)

2) Killers of the Flower Moon (2)

3) Anatomy of a Fall (3)

4) Poor Things (4)

5) The Holdovers (5)

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Poor Things (2)

2) Barbie (1)

3) Oppenheimer (3)

4) Killers of the Flower Moon (4)

5) Napoleon (5)

Comment:  Seven of the eight categories seem locked and have been consistent throughout the post-nomination period.  Production Design is the only one of these eight that remains competitive.  It's super-tight between Poor Things and Barbie.  I've moved Poor Things to the top of the PD chart based on its BAFTA win but this category could go either way and is definitely one of a handful that will determine Oscar pool winners/losers.

THE SATELLITE AWARDS AND TFF

The International Press Academy's Satellite Awards were revealed Sunday night.  Three TFF films earned wins:

The Holdovers (4): Best Film (Comedy or Musical), Best Actor (Comedy or Musical, Best Supporting Actress and Best Film Editing.

Poor Things (2): Best Actress (Comedy or Musical), Best Supporting Actor (Ruffalo).

The Zone of Interest (1): Best International Feature.

The complete list of winners can be found here.

THE BIKERIDERS HAS A NEW TRAILER

Focus Features released a second official trailer for Jeff Nichol's The Bikeriders.  The film received mixed reviews out of TFF but I was rather enthusiastic about it.  It stars Tom Hardy, Austin Butler and Jodie Comer who steals the movie.  The film will be released on June 21st.

Here's the new trailer from YouTube:

PASS SAGA

503 Error Codes that popped up even before the passes for TFF #51 went up for sale and then a torturous process for actually getting the info to actually purchase passes resulted in the first ever situation where the Patterson's don't have passes for a TFF since the second year we attended (2007).  And I know anecdotally that we weren't the only folks that experienced the same issue.

I have communicated with the pass team and have another couple of angles I am exploring.  We're not giving up yet, but Friday was massively frustrating and disheartening.

I do want to pass along a big "thank you" to any number of MTFB readers who offered their services or suggestions in the effort to get the deed done on Friday as well as post-failure suggestions about resolving the situation.

We have our lodging secured and will keep pursuing passes by other means for a bit anyway.  

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Composer Jerskin Fendrix on Poor Things from A.Frame.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

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MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays